Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths With Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 US States.

Importance: In 2021, more than 80 000 US residents died from an opioid overdose. Public health intervention initiatives, such as the Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS), are being launched with the goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths (OODs). Objective: To estimate the change in the projected number of OODs under different scenarios of the duration of sustainment of interventions, compared with the status quo. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model simulated the opioid epidemic in the 4 states participating in the HCS (ie, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) from 2020 to 2026. Participants were a simulated population transitioning from opioid misuse to opioid use disorder (OUD), overdose, treatment, and relapse. The model was calibrated using 2015 to 2020 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other sources for each state. The model accounts for reduced initiation of medications for OUD (MOUDs) and increased OODs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Exposure: Increasing MOUD initiation by 2- or 5-fold, improving MOUD retention to the rates achieved in clinical trial settings, increasing naloxone distribution efforts, and furthering safe opioid prescribing. An initial 2-year duration of interventions was simulated, with potential sustainment for up to 3 additional years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected reduction in number of OODs under different combinations and durations of sustainment of interventions. Results: Compared with the status quo, the estimated annual reduction in OODs at the end of the second year of interventions was 13% to 17% in Kentucky, 17% to 27% in Massachusetts, 15% to 22% in New York, and 15% to 22% in Ohio. Sustaining all interventions for an additional 3 years was estimated to reduce the annual number of OODs at the end of the fifth year by 18% to 27% in Kentucky, 28% to 46% in Massachusetts, 22% to 34% in New York, and 25% to 41% in Ohio. The longer the interventions were sustained, the better the outcomes; however, these positive gains would be washed out if interventions were not sustained. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study of the opioid epidemic in 4 US states, sustained implementation of interventions, including increased delivery of MOUDs and naloxone supply, was found to be needed to reduce OODs and prevent deaths from increasing again.

Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Drug Overdose Crisis and COVID-19 Are Comparable During the Two Years of Pandemic in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: The drug overdose crisis with shifting patterns from primarily opioid to polysubstance uses and COVID-19 infections are two concurrent public health crises in the United States, affecting the population of sizes in different magnitudes (approximately <10 million for substance use disorder (SUD) and drug overdoses vs. 80 million for COVID-19 within two years of the pandemic). Our objective is to compare the relative scale of disease burden for the two crises within a common framework, which could help inform policymakers with resource allocation and prioritization strategies. METHODS: We calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for SUD (including opioids and stimulants) and COVID-19 infections, respectively. We collected estimates for SUD prevalence, overdose deaths, COVID-19 cases and deaths, disability weights, and life expectancy from multiple publicly available sources. We then compared age distributions of estimated DALYs. RESULTS: We estimated a total burden of 13.83 million DALYs for SUD and drug overdoses and 15.03 million DALYs for COVID-19 in two years since March 2020. COVID-19 burden was dominated by the fatal burden (>95% of total DALYs), whereas SUD burden was attributed to both fatal (53%) and non-fatal burdens (47%). The highest disease burden was among individuals aged 30-39 for SUD (27%) and 50-64 for COVID-19 (31%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the smaller size of the affected population, SUD and drug overdoses resulted in comparable disease burden to the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional resources supporting evidence-based interventions in prevention and treatment may be warranted to ameliorate SUD and drug overdoses during both the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery.

A scoping review of the opioid epidemic among U.S. Immigrants: Implications for treatment practices.

The purpose of this review was to identify knowledge gaps within the literature regarding the impact of opioid use disorder, specific to immigrants in the United States, by addressing the following questions: 1) What is presented in the literature about the impact of opioid use disorder (OUD) and the opioid epidemic on immigrants in the United States?; and 2) What role does culture play in the opioid use disorder experiences of immigrants in the United States? Nineteen research articles were uncovered that addressed immigrants in the U.S. and opioid use disorder. The following themes prevailed: 1) OUD comparisons, 2) OUD comorbidities, 3) disparate OUD treatment engagement, and 4) the role of country of origin. Limited review findings support the need for future research on the topic of opioid misuse among immigrants in the United States. The authors elaborated on additional issues that influence OUD rates and warrant further exploration. Matters related to the potential positive roles of religion and faith leaders, cultural perceptions and expectations about gender roles, immigration status, ethnically diverse needs among sub-groups of immigrants, the role of geographic location within the U.S., and the implications of COVID-19 on OUD among immigrants need to be addressed to alleviate the deleterious impact of opioid misuse among immigrants.

Animated, video entertainment-education to improve vaccine confidence globally during the COVID-19 pandemic: an online randomized controlled experiment with 24,000 participants.

BACKGROUND: Science-driven storytelling and entertainment-education (E-E) media demonstrate potential for promoting improved attitudes and behavioral intent towards health-related practices. Months after the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), emerging research highlights the essential role of interventions to improve public confidence in the COVID-19 vaccine. To improve vaccine confidence, we designed three short, animated videos employing three research-informed pedagogical strategies. These can be distributed globally through social media platforms, because of their wordless and culturally accessible design. However, the effectiveness of short, animated storytelling videos, deploying various pedagogic strategies, needs to be explored across different global regions. METHODS/DESIGN: The present study is a multi-site, parallel group, randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing the effectiveness of (i) a storytelling-instructional-humor approach, (ii) a storytelling-analogy approach, (iii) a storytelling-emotion-focused approach, and (iv) no video. For our primary outcomes, we will measure vaccine hesitancy, and for secondary outcomes, we will measure behavioral intent to seek vaccination and hope. Using online platforms, we will recruit 12,000 participants (aged 18-59 years) from the USA and China, respectively, yielding a total sample size of 24,000. DISCUSSION: This trial uses innovative online technology, reliable randomization algorithms, validated survey instruments, and list experiments to establish the effectiveness of three short, animated videos employing various research-informed pedagogical strategies. Results will be used to scientifically support the broader distribution of these short, animated video as well as informing the design of future videos for rapid, global public health communication. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS #00023650 . Date of registration: 2021/02/09.

Prevalence of depression in China during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study in an online survey sample.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine (1) the prevalence of depression during the COVID-19 pandemic among Chinese adults and (2) how depression prevalence varied by province and sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: National online survey in China. PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey among adults registered with the survey company KuRunData from 8 May 2020 to 8 June 2020. We aimed to recruit 300-360 adults per province (n=14 493), with a similar distribution by sex and rural-urban residency as the general population within each of these provinces. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Participants completed the Patient Health Questionaire-9 (PHQ-9). We calculated the prevalence of depression (defined as a PHQ-9 score ≥10) nationally and separately for each province. ANALYSIS: Covariate-unadjusted and covariate-adjusted logistic regression models were used to examine how the prevalence of depression varied by adults' sociodemographic characteristics. All analyses used survey sampling weights. RESULTS: The survey was initiated by 14 493 participants, with 10 000 completing all survey questions and included in the analysis. The prevalence of depression in the national sample was 6.3% (95% CI 5.7% to 6.8%). A higher odds of depression was associated with living in an urban area (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.90) and working as a nurse (OR 3.06; 95% CI 1.41 to 6.66). A lower odds of depression was associated with participants who had accurate knowledge of COVID-19 transmission prevention actions (OR 0.71; 95% CI 0.51 to 0.98), the knowledge that saliva is a main transmission route (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.99) and awareness of COVID-19 symptoms (OR, 0.82; 95% CI 0.68 to 1.00). CONCLUSION: Around one in 20 adults in our online survey sample had a PHQ-9 score suggestive of depression. Interventions and policies to prevent and treat depression during the COVID-19 pandemic in China may be particularly needed for nurses and those living in urban areas.

Knowledge About COVID-19 Among Adults in China: Cross-sectional Online Survey.

BACKGROUND: A detailed understanding of the public's knowledge and perceptions of COVID-19 could inform governments' public health actions in response to the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the knowledge and perceptions of COVID-19 among adults in China and its variation among provinces and by sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: Between May 8 and June 8, 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional online survey among adults in China who were registered with the private survey company KuRunData. We set a target sample size of 10,000 adults, aiming to sample 300-360 adults from each province in China. Participants were asked 25 questions that tested their knowledge about COVID-19, including measures to prevent infection, common symptoms, and recommended care-seeking behavior. We disaggregated responses by age; sex; education; province; household income; rural-urban residency; and whether or not a participant had a family member, friend, or acquaintance who they know to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. All analyses used survey sampling weights. RESULTS: There were 5079 men and 4921 women who completed the questionnaire and were included in the analysis. Out of 25 knowledge questions, participants answered a mean and median of 21.4 (95% CI 21.3-21.4) and 22 (IQR 20-23) questions correctly, respectively. A total of 83.4% (95% CI 82.7%-84.1%) of participants answered four-fifths or more of the questions correctly. For at least one of four ineffective prevention measures (using a hand dryer, regular nasal irrigation, gargling mouthwash, and taking antibiotics), 68.9% (95% CI 68.0%-69.8%) of participants answered that it was an effective method to prevent a SARS-CoV-2 infection. Although knowledge overall was similar across provinces, the percent of participants who answered the question on recommended care-seeking behavior correctly varied from 47.0% (95% CI 41.4%-52.7%) in Tibet to 87.5% (95% CI 84.1%-91.0%) in Beijing. Within provinces, participants who were male, were middle-aged, were residing in urban areas, and had higher household income tended to answer a higher proportion of the knowledge questions correctly. CONCLUSIONS: This online study of individuals across China suggests that the majority of the population has good knowledge of COVID-19. However, a substantial proportion still holds misconceptions or incorrect beliefs about prevention methods and recommended health care-seeking behaviors, especially in rural areas and some less wealthy provinces in Western China. This study can inform the development of tailored public health policies and promotion campaigns by identifying knowledge areas for which misconceptions are comparatively common and provinces that have relatively low knowledge.

Correction: Knowledge About COVID-19 Among Adults in China: Cross-sectional Online Survey.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/26940.].

Multi-platform omics analysis reveals molecular signature for COVID-19 pathogenesis, prognosis and drug target discovery.

Disease progression prediction and therapeutic drug target discovery for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly important, as there is still no effective strategy for severe COVID-19 patient treatment. Herein, we performed multi-platform omics analysis of serial plasma and urine samples collected from patients during the course of COVID-19. Integrative analyses of these omics data revealed several potential therapeutic targets, such as ANXA1 and CLEC3B. Molecular changes in plasma indicated dysregulation of macrophage and suppression of T cell functions in severe patients compared to those in non-severe patients. Further, we chose 25 important molecular signatures as potential biomarkers for the prediction of disease severity. The prediction power was validated using corresponding urine samples and plasma samples from new COVID-19 patient cohort, with AUC reached to 0.904 and 0.988, respectively. In conclusion, our omics data proposed not only potential therapeutic targets, but also biomarkers for understanding the pathogenesis of severe COVID-19.

Curbing the COVID-19 pandemic with facility-based isolation of mild cases: a mathematical modeling study.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, patients with mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are told to self-isolate at home, but imperfect compliance and shared living space with uninfected people limit the effectiveness of home-based isolation. We examine the impact of facility-based isolation compared to self-isolation at home on the continuing epidemic in the USA. METHODS: We developed a compartment model to simulate the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 and calibrated it to key epidemic measures in the USA from March to September 2020. We simulated facility-based isolation strategies with various capacities and starting times under different diagnosis rates. Our primary model outcomes are new infections and deaths over 2 months from October 2020 onwards. In addition to national-level estimations, we explored the effects of facility-based isolation under different epidemic burdens in major US Census Regions. We performed sensitivity analyses by varying key model assumptions and parameters. RESULTS: We find that facility-based isolation with moderate capacity of 5 beds per 10 000 total population could avert 4.17 (95% credible interval 1.65-7.11) million new infections and 16 000 (8000-23 000) deaths in 2 months compared with home-based isolation. These results are equivalent to relative reductions of 57% (44-61%) in new infections and 37% (27-40%) in deaths. Facility-based isolation with high capacity of 10 beds per 10 000 population could achieve reductions of 76% (62-84%) in new infections and 52% (37-64%) in deaths when supported by expanded testing with an additional 20% daily diagnosis rate. Delays in implementation would substantially reduce the impact of facility-based isolation. The effective capacity and the impact of facility-based isolation varied by epidemic stage across regions. CONCLUSION: Timely facility-based isolation for mild COVID-19 cases could substantially reduce the number of new infections and effectively curb the continuing epidemic in the USA. Local epidemic burdens should determine the scale of facility-based isolation strategies.

Buying Time for an Effective Epidemic Response: The Impact of a Public Holiday for Outbreak Control on COVID-19 Epidemic Spread.

Rapid responses in the early stage of a new epidemic are crucial in outbreak control. Public holidays for outbreak control could provide a critical time window for a rapid rollout of social distancing and other control measures at a large population scale. The objective of our study was to explore the impact of the timing and duration of outbreak-control holidays on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic spread during the early stage in China. We developed a compartment model to simulate the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in China starting from January 2020. We projected and compared epidemic trajectories with and without an outbreak-control holiday that started during the Chinese Lunar New Year. We considered multiple scenarios of the outbreak-control holiday with different durations and starting times, and under different assumptions about viral transmission rates. We estimated the delays in days to reach certain thresholds of infections under different scenarios. Our results show that the outbreak-control holiday in China likely stalled the spread of COVID-19 for several days. The base case outbreak-control holiday (21 d for Hubei Province and 10 d for all other provinces) delayed the time to reach 100 000 confirmed infections by 7.54 d. A longer outbreak-control holiday would have had stronger effects. A nationwide outbreak-control holiday of 21 d would have delayed the time to 100 000 confirmed infections by nearly 10 d. Furthermore, we find that outbreak-control holidays that start earlier in the course of a new epidemic are more effective in stalling epidemic spread than later holidays and that additional control measures during the holidays can boost the holiday effect. In conclusion, an outbreak-control holiday can likely effectively delay the transmission of epidemics that spread through social contacts. The temporary delay in the epidemic trajectory buys time, which scientists can use to discover transmission routes and identify effective public health interventions and which governments can use to build physical infrastructure, organize medical supplies, and deploy human resources for long-term epidemic mitigation and control efforts.